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string(161) ‘ the Hotelling model is that the market price of non-renewable methods must enhance with time, provided costs continue to be time-invariant \(Chakravorty et al\. ‘


Economic analysts have long been concerned with the removal of natural resources. This kind of paper gives an evaluation or analysis of Harold Hotelling’s theory that asserts that one of the most socially and economically lucrative extraction track of a nonrenewable resource is usually one along which the price of the source, determined by the marginal net revenue in the sale of the resource, improves at the interest rates

The conventional paper presents a model of the Hotelling rule and examines the applicability to real life phenomena. The newspaper finds that even though the Hotelling theory had contributed to the economics of nonrenewable solutions and the rise of the conservationism movement, the assumptions presented by the theory are not appropriate to the real world.

In conclusion, the paper suggests the need to rest the assumptions in order to make clear the real-world phenomena.


The efficient usage of scarce normal resources, the two renewable and nonrenewable options, has long been an issue of organic resource economics (Shogren 2000). For example , Hersker Smith explored on the normal progress of opulence and suggested that for a region to achieve the best possible economic improvement, it had to allocate capital to property, fisheries and mines (Barnett , Mors 1963).

In a similar vein, Ricardo explored on the value of property quality in economic lease. Robert Malthus raised concern about the dangers of human population growth, asserting that the raising population was likely to preclude the endless progress toward a utopian society (Barnett , Mors 1963). Similarly, Jevons brought up concern regarding the consequences of coal destruction on populace growth (Shogren 2000). A feature shared by all these economists is their particular treatment of organic resources as being a free element of production. That is, all of them treat all-natural resources as provided freely by nature.

But towards beginning of the modern world, a shift in mindset occurred because economists began treating all-natural resources while something more distinct than the free component of creation (Shogren 2000). Theorists just like Hotelling and Gray particularly talked about to the additional intertemporal cost of extracting all-natural resources (Shogren 2000). On this factor, this conventional paper presents an assessment or research of Harold Hotelling’s theory that asserts that the most socially and economically profitable extraction track of a nonrenewable useful resource is a single along which the price of the resource, dependant upon the limited net income from the sale of the resource, increases in the rate of interest (Harold 1931).

Harold Hotelling’s theory

In 1931, Hotelling used differential calculus to derive the optimal extraction of the fixed resource over time (Bradley 2007). He began by knowing the insufficiency of the standard economic evaluation in the industry in which production was bound to fall (Bradley 2007). Hotelling in that case asserted that if the total resource bottom and capital investments had been fixed and efficient removal methods employed, then the marginal net earnings of removal of nonrenewable resource might rise on the rate of interest over time (Hotelling 1931). This superior price was referred to as the ‘resource rent’ or rather the ‘hotelling rent’.

In other words, under a perfectively competitive market, the marketplace price of your non-renewable reference minus the minor costs need to grow in duo with the rate of interest. As such, the price of the natural resource ought to increase over time, provided that the marginal costs are held constant (Chakravorty et al. 2009)

Harold Hotelling’s theory postulated that one of the most socially and economically successful extraction program a non-renewable resource was one in that the price of the resource, dependant on the minor net income from the sale for the useful resource, increased at the rate of interest (Harold 1931). The theory thus suggested the time program natural useful resource extraction that most increases the worth of the source reserve.

But at the time, his analysis was way in advance as math concepts had not but been designed into economics. As a result, his seminal evaluation was originally rejected for that reason. However , Hotelling’s rule later came to be known as the pillar with the theory of non-renewable resource economics through its rich insight for the long-run behaviour of useful resource price and scarcity of extraction as well as contribution for the rise of conservatism movements (Gaitan ainsi que al. 2007).

Building of the Hotelling rule

To illustrate the Hotelling rule, we will consider because basic model where in So denotes an economy’s total stock of resource and Rt denotes the total extraction for time big t (Gaitan ainsi que al. 2007). The energy of usage would be denoted by U(Rt). The objective is usually to maximize the marginal net revenue of extraction from the non-renewable source. Assuming that the extraction can be carried out with constant unit costs

Then a optimal path of removal of the organic resource will be found by the following equation

¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦.. (i)

But the maximization must fulfill the condition

¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦. (ii)

Let’s assume that private and social deals are the same and this there are not any externalities (Gaitan et approach. 2007), then the solution to equation (i) and (ii) is found using maximum control theory as proven below:

¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦. (iii)

Nevertheless conditions need the optimal extraction path to match the following regards (Gaitan ou al. 2007)

¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦.. (iv)

The opportunity cost or rather the shadow cost at period t, Yt, is in the present case continuous. We therefore have

Formula (iv) can easily thus be rewritten as follows:

¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦.. (v)

And considering the fact that in a market economy, then it can be seen that equation (iv) reflects the Hotelling secret that the marginal price in the natural useful resource increases with increase in the interest rate of discount.

Hotteling’s forecasts of a decrease in nonrenewable resources over time such as essential oil, minerals and forests led to demands to get regulation of exploitation of this kind of exhaustible possessions (Rothband 2000). The self-centered exploitation of natural solutions at an instant rate provided rise towards the conservation motion (Rothband 2000). This theory has created the basis in the conservationist activity and has become influential to the point that prohibitions against oil and mineral mining and deforestation in certain authorities lands had been justified on this ground (Hotelling 2007).

Criticism of Hotelling’s theory

A significant point to highlight in the Hotelling model is usually that the market price of non-renewable solutions must boost with time, provided costs stay time-invariant (Chakravorty et approach.

You examine ‘Analysis Of Harold Hotelling’s Theory’ in category ‘Essay examples’ 2009). However , the truth is such an increase in the price of non-renewable sources may well not persist several short-run elements such as legislation and speculation in product markets will come into play resulting in alternative phases of upward and downward cost movements (Chakravorty et ‘s. 2009).

For example , if the Kyoto Treaty was going to impose a target of 450 PPM of co2, energy prices would be expected to rise yet fall shortly after the limitation becomes binding (Chakravorty ain al. 2009). But when we have a fall under the 450 ppm level, the costs are guaranteed to rise once again (Chakravorty ain al. 2009). Such a cyclical conduct in the rates of nonrenewable resources is usually not covered under the Hotelling model.

Resulting from such kind of price variants, Harold’s Hotelling theory comes under criticism. Economists possess argued that Hotelling’s assumptive prediction of your rise in shortage and comparable prices of nonrenewable assets over time is usually not in the mind out of facts (Watkins 1992). For example , Krautkraemer (1998) argues that for the most part, Hotelling’s theoretical predictions have been sporadic with empirical studies of non green resource prices and in situ values.

Within the last 100 years approximately, there hasn’t been a prolonged increase in the costs of nonrenewable resources (Krautkraemer 1998). Likewise, economic signals do not give evidence of an increase in scarcity of the resources (Krautkraemer 1998). Even though the popuplar view among the average person is that tiredness of non-renewable resources is usually progressing faster, this perspective is highly arguable. In fact , economical indicators have demostrated that there have been growth in nonrenewable source supply as new deposits continue to be learned and the extraction technology continue to be progress (Krautkraemer 1998). It turned out argued to mitigate the scarcity result (Krautkraemer 1998).

But the over criticism may well not necessarily carry as the same as other economic analysis with this subject, Krautkramer’s analysis continues to be conducted on the global level (Wright , Czelusta 2002). Although it may appear appropriate to test Hotelling predictions at the global level, these kinds of analysis leaves open the chance that the destruction may have been staved off in the global level, through the finding new and underexplored territories (Wright , Czelusta 2002).

Nonetheless, the most popular view the fact that world is probably run out of natural assets in the near future may well not necessarily end up being true. In the event that resources are viewed as to be hard to find, then there is also a higher likelihood of its actual price rising (Braddley 2007). In the event of an increase in real price, producers will tend to be induced by high prices to explore to get more reserves leading to an increase in reference stock (Braddley 2007). The lifetime actions of most assets can as a result be thought to remain frequent over time

One more error that Hotelling produced was connecting his very conditional analysis to the actual (Braddley 2007). Hotelling faulted laissez-faire pertaining to deviating by his made optimality in extraction of non-renewable solutions, stating which the extractive companies had mistakes which ended in wasteful varieties of exploitation (Braddley 2007). He also argues that such wasteful varieties of exploitation may have been controlled in the interest of the public (Braddley 2007).

Whilst Hotelling was speedy to recognize market failure, he failed to account for what is at present known as authorities failure (Braddley 2007). Just like be seen together with the long good petroleum regulation in the US, federal government intervention features generally recently been lacking in details and have been highly difficult in practice (Adelman 1993). Simply an omniscient planner knows the facts of require, supply, selling price, cost, interest rates, and entreprenurial alertness needed to arrive at a great optimal extraction solution (Braddley 2007).

Role of logistics

Harold’s hotelling theory could be applied to the logistic industry. According to the hotelling theory, one of the most profitable extraction is one in which the price of the source, determined by the marginal net revenue via sale of the resource, increases at the rate of interest. In this respect, to reduce on the limited cost of removal, it would require that an market be located close to the removal point. This will not only decrease the transport costs, but will also increase efficiency inside the supply chain and strategies.

Logistics therefore has an important role to play in determining the perfect extraction answer. The lower the transport costs, the more likely are the returns to scale. Even though the transport costs are account for a small percentage of the total costs, the perfect extraction solution must also take into account the total strategies costs. Logistics have an impact on the firm’s optimal location behavior and thus must be taken into account of when identifying the optimal removal solution of your natural reference.

Bottom line

In conclusion, the Hotelling theory provides contributed to the economics of nonrenewable resources. It has shaped the conceptual and assumptive framework used by economists to model the supply and the prices of non-renewable resources. More so, it has written for the conservationist movement. Nevertheless , the Hotelling theory, nevertheless elegant, appear somewhat misplaced. The unit points out to a rise in flight of net prices of nonrenewable methods along with the rate of interest yet there exists a lack of empirical evidence to back this kind of pricing behaviour.

Moreover, the assumption of your increase in scarcity of not renewable methods is highly controversial. These presumptions seem not really applicable for the real world. Most likely, to explain the real-world phenomena, it would be useful to relax these types of assumptions. For example , in order to describe the price of oil, it would be necessary to discard every assumptions of inevitable embrace price as well as the assumption of a fixed share.

Reference point

Adelman, M. A., 1993. ‘Introduction’. In M. A. Adelman (Ed. ), The economics of petroleum supply. Cambridge, MA: ÜBER Press.

Barnett, H. and Morse, C., 1963. Scarcity and development. The economics of normal resource scarcity, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins College or university Press

Braddley, R. M., 2007. Resourceship: an Austrian theory of mineral assets. Rev Austrian Econ 20: 63-90

Bradley, R. L., 1996. Oil, gas, and government: The U. T. experience. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

Chakravorty, U., Leach, A. and Moreaux, M., 2009. “Twin peaks in Energy prices: a hotelling model with polluting of the environment and learning. School of Business and department of Economics.

Gaitan, B., Tol, R. T., and Yetkiner, H., 3 years ago. The Hotelling’s rule revisited in a powerful general balance model. School of Hamburg

Hotelling, They would., 2006. ‘Stability in competition’. The Economical Journal, vol. 39 (153), pp. 41-57

Hotelling, Harold, 1931. ‘The economics of exhaustible resources’. Journal of Political Overall economy 39 (2), 137″175

Krautkraemer, Jeffrey A. (1998). ” Nonrenewable Useful resource Scarcity,  Journal of Economic

Lin, C., Meng, H., Ngai, T. Con., Oscherov, V., Zhu, Sumado a. H., 2008. Hotelling revisited: oil rates and endogenous technological improvement. University of California

Literature 36: 2065-2107.

Rothbard, Meters. N., 2000. ‘Conservation inside the free market’. In: Egalitarianism as a rise ? mutiny against nature and other works, Auburn, ‘S: Ludwig von Mises Company, pp. 175″189.

Shogren, T. F., 2k. Natural resource economics. USA: University of Wyoming.

Watkins, G. C., 1992. ‘The Hotelling rule: Autobahn or perhaps Cul sobre Sac? ‘ Energy Record, 13 (1), 1″24.

Wright, G. and Czelusta, J., 2002. Resource-based economic development, past and present. Stanford University

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Published: 02.13.20

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