Excerpt from Term Paper:
Basic monetary risk management instruments, such as hedging, were simply not used, for the reason that confidence was uncontrollably excessive and buyers never thought that prices would go straight down or that credits could become more high-priced.
The important concern is whether or not our economy is using a recession right now and, especially, if the stock exchange is currently bearish as much as it was bullish in the past years. The content “5 methods to know if the bull is over” concentrates on clarifying these aspects and on identifying the traces that the bear marketplace would leave in the current industry situation.
Based on the article, the first indications that a bull market is above includes reduced consumer spending, concerns about the subprime mortgage loans etc . This is currently the case in our and the wall street game is keen to cash in on all these. Indeed, the Dow Roberts index provides closed over 14, 1000 points in July 2007, only to have a dive soon after and decrease with up to on the lookout for. 8% in the subsequent weeks that implemented. As we can easily see from the data below, in just under a month, the Dow Jones value has gone straight down from more than 14, 500 to very well under 13, 000. This is simply not a singular case, with the S P. index losing all the gains from the previous 12 months.
More indications of a possible end to the market bull currently determined in the article include the increase in oil price (with rates going over $80 a barrel), a decrease in overall buyer spending (which has started to become felt certainly on the market) and a slowdown in corporate revenue growth, which is something that the corporate reports to get 2007 will probably show.
In my opinion, there is enough evidence that people are going not only for a bearish market, but also for the start of an economic economic downturn. The fact the Federal Book has lowered the interest charge levels up to 0. 5% (while every person expected just a zero. 25% reduction) shows that the care for states is, at this time, much higher than the concern to get inflationary demands, for example.
The existing mortgage and real estate catastrophe is perhaps only a consequence in the growing recession trend in the economy in the entirety. As the macroeconomic measures to induce economic growth are already recently been implementing (best example is a Federal Book interest rate increase), it remains to be seen whether this can also increase the investors’ self-confidence.
Bibliography
1 . LaMonica, Paul. 5 strategies to know in the event the bull is over. CNN Funds. com. Within the Internet at http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/moneymag/0708/gallery.how_youll_know.moneymag/6.html.Last gathered on Sept 30, 3 years ago
2 . Tully, Shawn. Risk returns having a vengeance. Bundle of money Magazine. September 2007. Around the Internet in http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/17/markets/risk_returns.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082312.Last recovered on Sept. 2010 30, 2007
